Manashimaya
NASA has provided a major update on asteroid 2024 YR4, once feared to be a potential threat to Earth. After months of concern, new calculations show the asteroid now has an almost negligible chance of impact in 2032, bringing much-needed relief to scientists and planetary defense experts.
Initially, the asteroid’s probability of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, was alarming. At its peak, the chance of collision stood at 3.1%—making it the most “risky” near-Earth object (NEO) detected in recent times. With a diameter of 54 meters (177 feet), an impact could have caused destruction comparable to the 1908 Tunguska event, which flattened over 2,150 square kilometers of Siberian forest.
However, thanks to continuous observations, NASA has significantly revised the risk downward. The latest data from February 21 showed the impact probability dropping to just one in 26,000—effectively eliminating the danger. As a result, NASA has downgraded its Torino Scale rating to zero, meaning 2024 YR4 is no longer a concern.
This update comes as a relief to space agencies worldwide, which had been monitoring the asteroid closely. With the threat averted, scientists can now focus on further refining asteroid tracking systems to safeguard Earth in the future.
