In a stunning political upset, Karol Nawrocki, a historian-turned-populist firebrand, has narrowly clinched the Polish presidency, dealing a significant blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European agenda and deepening the nation’s political divide.
The 42-year-old right-wing candidate aligned with the Law and Justice (PiS) party secured 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating the liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who was widely considered the favorite.
Nawrocki’s win not only extends PiS’ influence into a second decade in the presidential palace, but also revives conservative momentum that many believed had ended with the party’s parliamentary defeat in 2023. More importantly, it hands Nawrocki the presidential veto, a powerful tool that could derail Tusk’s ambitious reform plans aimed at restoring judicial independence, expanding civil liberties, and rebuilding trust in public institutions.
A Populist Underdog Rises
Nawrocki’s rise was far from predictable. A first-time politician with a colorful and controversial past, he had once led two major cultural institutions in Poland—the Museum of the Second World War and the Institute of National Remembrance, the latter often criticized for being politicized under PiS.
His campaign was marred by scandal—from allegedly misusing a Gdansk apartment to appearing in disguise on TV to promote his own book. Yet he leaned into controversy, portraying himself as a rugged outsider. When confronted with his involvement in organized soccer hooligan fights—known in Poland as “ustawka”—he called them “noble,” appealing to nationalist and masculine ideals.
He built his base around Catholic values, anti-immigration rhetoric, and fierce Euroscepticism, all while maintaining close ties with conservative allies in the U.S., including former President Donald Trump, whom he met at the White House before the vote.
What Nawrocki’s Win Means for Poland
Nawrocki’s presidency is a nightmare scenario for Tusk, who was counting on a Trzaskowski win to dismantle the institutional legacy of PiS’ authoritarian tilt. Instead, the new president is expected to follow in the footsteps of Andrzej Duda, who used his veto power to stall reforms and prevent the liberalization of laws on judiciary independence, media freedom, abortion rights, and LGBTQ+ protections.
With Nawrocki now in power, Tusk’s vision for a modern, liberal Poland faces new obstacles. The possibility of relaxing the near-total abortion ban or recognizing same-sex civil partnerships is all but dead in the water. And with conservative lawmakers still holding sway in parliament, the president’s veto could block even moderate reforms.
The election result is also a blow to the European Union, which saw Tusk as a critical partner in rolling back democratic erosion in the bloc. With Nawrocki at the helm, Poland’s democratic future once again stands at a crossroads.
