A decades-old manga has ignited global anxiety with its ominous prediction of a massive earthquake on July 5—but are these fears grounded in science? Experts say no.
Japan, a country well-acquainted with seismic activity, finds itself at the center of a viral prophecy that has gripped the internet and sent shockwaves through the travel industry. The source? A 2021 reprint of The Future I Saw—a manga written by retired artist Ryo Tatsuki. Dubbed Japan’s “New Baba Vanga,” Tatsuki claims to have seen future disasters in her dreams, including Japan’s devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.
In the manga, Tatsuki allegedly describes a crack forming under the seabed between Japan and the Philippines, triggering a tsunami said to be three times more powerful than the one in 2011. That catastrophe killed nearly 20,000 people and caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster—so it’s no wonder that social media, especially in East Asia, is buzzing with speculation and fear.
Despite this, scientists firmly reject the possibility of precise earthquake predictions. Japan’s Meteorological Agency has called such forecasts “scientifically impossible” and labeled the July 5 prophecy “disinformation.” Seismologists explain that, while Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone nations on Earth, there’s no proven method to predict an earthquake’s exact timing, location, or magnitude.
Still, the theory has gained momentum, particularly as recent seismic events—including over 1,000 minor quakes around the Tokara Islands and renewed volcanic activity at Mount Shinmoedake—seem to eerily align with the manga’s timeline.
Tatsuki, for her part, has stepped back from the frenzy. In a public statement issued through her publisher, she emphasized: “I am not a prophet,” and urged readers not to take her visions literally. “Please listen to expert opinions and act responsibly,” she added.
But the psychological impact of such “predictions” is real.
According to travel analysts, Japan’s booming tourism numbers have taken a hit. While April marked a record with 3.9 million visitors, May saw a noticeable dip—particularly among Hong Kong tourists. Some regional airlines have even canceled flights to Japan due to declining demand, citing fear linked to the so-called megaquake rumor.
Steve Huen, CEO of Hong Kong-based EGL Tours, confirmed that Japan bookings had halved in recent weeks. “The rumors have had a significant impact,” he said, noting that promotional discounts and earthquake insurance were necessary to reassure hesitant travelers.
While the July 5 prophecy may not be grounded in science, the Japanese government has acknowledged the real threat of a future major earthquake. The Nankai Trough—a seismic hotspot—poses an 80% chance of producing a magnitude 9 quake by 2055. Government estimates predict a possible death toll of up to 300,000 and economic damage surpassing $2 trillion.
Ultimately, Japan’s earthquake reality is real, even though the manga forecast may be fantasy. The public is urged by experts to maintain their vigilance while avoiding being duped by false information. The best defense is readiness for disasters, not superstition.