Leading a rebellion and running a country are vastly different challenges. While insurgency often thrives on dismantling existing structures, governance demands the creation of new, functional systems. This reality is starkly evident in the case of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who, despite controlling significant parts of northwest Syria, faces overwhelming difficulties in establishing effective governance.
For years, Jolani and his group have been at the forefront of Syria’s complex and brutal civil war. Their rise was fueled by discontent against the Assad regime, coupled with adept military strategies and alliances. The group’s ability to hold territory gave them a semblance of legitimacy, but governance has proven to be their Achilles’ heel. While toppling a regime can rally support, administering a fractured region is a far more complex task.
The Burden of Expectations
Governance requires more than slogans or military might; it requires legitimacy, resources, and public trust. Jolani’s HTS faces significant challenges in meeting these expectations. The population in rebel-held territories has endured years of conflict, displacement, and deprivation. They demand stability, access to basic services, and economic opportunities. Yet, Jolani’s administration has struggled to deliver.
One of the key issues is the lack of resources. Syria’s civil war has devastated infrastructure, obliterated local economies, and left millions dependent on humanitarian aid. In regions controlled by HTS, the group often relies on external funding, taxation, and tariffs to finance its operations. However, these revenue streams are insufficient to rebuild schools, hospitals, and essential services. The resulting hardships only deepen public dissatisfaction.
The Governance Dilemma
Jolani’s leadership is further undermined by a lack of international recognition. While HTS has attempted to rebrand itself, distancing from its extremist origins, it remains designated as a terrorist organization by many countries. This status isolates the group diplomatically and economically, making it almost impossible to attract foreign investment or aid for rebuilding efforts.
Moreover, governing in a region like Idlib is complicated by its demographic and political diversity. The population includes displaced Syrians from across the country, as well as various rebel factions with differing ideologies and interests. Maintaining unity among these groups while implementing cohesive policies is a monumental challenge.
The Strain of Conflict
Despite HTS’s military successes, constant external threats from the Assad regime and Russian forces leave little room for development. Frequent airstrikes and skirmishes disrupt any attempts at stability. Additionally, internal dissent within rebel-held areas further destabilizes HTS’s rule. The group’s reliance on strict laws and authoritarian control to maintain order often alienates the local population, creating resentment rather than loyalty.
Lessons in Leadership
The plight of Jolani and HTS highlights a broader truth about leadership: it is far easier to oppose than to govern. Insurgencies thrive in chaos, but governance requires order, consensus, and long-term planning. It demands a vision that goes beyond military conquest to address the daily needs of the people.
Jolani’s struggles serve as a reminder that holding territory is not synonymous with building a state. Without legitimacy, resources, and the support of its people, even the most successful rebel movements face insurmountable challenges in governance. For Jolani and HTS, the dream of leading Syria remains overshadowed by the grim realities of governing a war-torn nation.
