A new weather disturbance in the Bay of Bengal might develop into a significant system next week, as per initial assessments from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The agency has forecasted the emergence of a low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea on November 22, which could strengthen into a depression by November 24. This evolving system originates from an upper-air cyclonic circulation that has been situated over the central Strait of Malacca. Extending up to 5.8 kilometers above mean sea level, this circulation has been increasingly contributing to atmospheric instability in the region.
In its latest Tropical Weather Outlook, the IMD mentioned that the prospective system is predicted to move west-northwest, gaining strength as it progresses across the southwest Bay of Bengal during the 48 hours after its formation.
Early morning satellite imagery from INSAT-3DS (0300 UTC) showed scattered low and medium clouds along with areas of intense convection over the South Andaman Sea and southern Bay of Bengal. The central Bay has also been experiencing moderate to intense convective activity, which is often an indicator of deeper weather formations.
However, IMD’s cyclogenesis probability chart offers a cautious outlook. While there is no possibility of depression formation in the first 48 hours, the chances rise from low between 48 and 72 hours to moderate between 144 and 168 hours. This indicates that the system may take time before showing clearer signs of cyclone formation.
When asked about the possibility of a full-fledged cyclone, Manorama Mohanty, Director of the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, clarified that the IMD has so far predicted only a depression. “We will issue more information after the formation of a low-pressure area on November 22,” she said.
Meanwhile, anticipation of fresh rainfall has prompted farmers along coastal Odisha to begin harvesting their nearly mature paddy crops. Despite growing concerns, the state agriculture department is yet to release a formal advisory.
As monitoring continues, the coming days will determine whether the system strengthens enough to become the season’s next cyclone. Until then, the IMD urges close attention to updates, especially for coastal residents and farmers.